Every fresh produce market is on the same curve. Australia is not a different market — it is a maturing market's end state. This is where Asia is heading. The question is: where does your category sit right now?
The Framework
Select any stage to explore it in detail
Three demand shifts · Nine commercial stages · One diagnostic map
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Shift 01
Pre-Pack
Stage 1
Trust
"Will it be safe?"
Explore
Stage 2
Consistency
"Same every time?"
Explore
Stage 3
Convenience
"Does it fit my life?"
Explore
Shift 02
Growth
Stage 1
Category Growth
"A rising tide."
Explore
Stage 2
Variety Substitution
"Trading within the pie."
Explore
Stage 3
Zero-Sum Displacement
"Every winner funds a loser."
Explore
Shift 03
Promo
Stage 1
Tactical
"Occasional, effective."
Explore
Stage 2
Cyclical
"Shoppers start waiting."
Explore
Stage 3
Structural
"Deal price = shelf price."
Explore
$100M+
Value destroyed in AU avocados 2024–25. Volume was up 15%. Value collapsed. Stage 3 Promo in action.
+43
Extra promo ads run by Supermarket 1 on mushrooms 2025–26. Volume change: −1.4%. Elasticity completely broken.
+19.7%
AU banana Small kids pack growth while bigger formats collapsed. Stage 3 Pre-Pack: convenience wins.
This is a diagnostic, not a document
Where does your category sit on the map?
30 minutes. You bring the category and the retailer question that's keeping you up. We bring the framework and the data.
Or email directly — samrat@binaryconsultinggroup.com.au